Thailand: Thaksin Shinawatra, the ultima ratio of a Nation in Crisis

Government turmoil, the resignation of the Prime Minister, mounting tensions on the Cambodian border, a tariff crisis with the United States, and a stagnating tourism economy—Thailand is facing a confluence of challenges that are deeply destabilizing. Long viewed as a pillar of Southeast Asia, the country now risks becoming the region’s “sick man,” with all the political, economic, and geopolitical ramifications such a diagnosis entails. In this increasingly volatile context, the return to the public stage of Thaksin Shinawatra—the former prime minister and key architect of Thailand’s economic resurgence at the turn of the 21st century—has reignited speculation across the kingdom. What role does Thaksin intend to play? And can his reappearance offer a real alternative to the current drift?

A Return that Signals More Than Nostalgia

His re-entry into the national debate was made official on July 17, at the Queen Sirikit National Convention Center in Bangkok, during a high-profile event entitled Unlocking Thailand’s Future. Far from being a nostalgic exercise or a mere symbolic gesture, the speech Thaksin delivered was both dense and highly structured—marking not the return of a retired statesman, but of a political strategist determined to shape Thailand’s destiny once again. To grasp the full significance of this moment, it is essential to carefully unpack both the substance and the subtext of his intervention, in which the “Doctor Thaksin” persona blended with that of an unrepentant reformer.

Three Structural Lock-ins: Politics, Economy, Confidence

Thaksin’s diagnosis of the country’s malaise was uncompromising. In his view, Thailand’s current woes stem from three interlocking structural crises. The first is political. The proliferation of short-lived coalitions, cobbled together for convenience rather than coherence, has led to a diffusion of authority and a paralysis of state functions. This fragmented governance, he argued, has made it impossible for Thailand to mount an effective response to both domestic and global challenges.

The second is economic. Thailand’s GDP, he noted, currently falls between 25 to 50 percent below its potential. This underperformance, he argued, is not the result of global headwinds alone but is largely self-inflicted—stemming from the absence of a national economic strategy, poor coordination, and a lack of long-term vision. The combination of these two dysfunctions has triggered a third and more insidious crisis: a collective loss of confidence. Thai society, said Thaksin, is gripped by a spiritual exhaustion, unable to summon the unity or ambition needed to break the cycle of stagnation.

This bleak outlook is further complicated by regional tensions. Thaksin’s remarks on Cambodia were particularly sharp. He expressed shock at what he sees as a moral failure by Thailand’s leadership in dealing with its neighbor. “I’m surprised by what happened with Cambodia,” he declared. “The Khmer leader is completely unethical, yet we sided with him. I’m confused—why don’t Thai people love each other anymore? This shouldn’t have happened. No leader in the world does this, yet we did. Especially the party that just left the government now sees it again as a betrayal. I’m not even sure if they’re Thai or Khmer.”

Reigniting Thaksinomics: Industry, Energy, and AI

Faced with this threefold impasse, Thaksin unveiled an ambitious economic roadmap reminiscent of the bold reforms he championed in the early 2000s under what has since been dubbed “Thaksinomics.” At the heart of his vision lies a return to state-driven development, but retooled for the 21st century. Among his most striking proposals is the creation of a people-oriented Asset Management Company (AMC) to restructure household debt, which has now reached 92 percent of GDP. Existing institutions, he argued, are too bureaucratic and inflexible to meet the needs of Thai citizens caught in financial distress.

Equally central to his project is an aggressive push toward energy transition. Thaksin outlined plans for a domestic electric vehicle industry built around Thailand’s existing manufacturing ecosystem, as well as a massive expansion of solar energy production—targeting 40,000 megawatts. His ambition is to turn Thailand into a regional hub for green electricity and digital infrastructure, especially data centers. “We’ll be sellers of green electricity,” he declared. “Then data centers will all come to Thailand. Today, data centers wanting to come to Thailand find there’s insufficient green electricity.”

Innovation and digital transformation are also at the forefront of his thinking. He proposed a national AI training program, accessible through online platforms and incentivized by the distribution of tokens that could be used to access advanced AI tools like ChatGPT or DFIC. He also advocated for the rapid deployment of a national “Innovation Sandbox”—a legal and regulatory framework designed to allow experimentation in emerging sectors such as gene therapy, stem cells, and cryptocurrencies.

Reviving Global Competitiveness Through Infrastructure and Tourism

Thaksin also addressed the country’s deteriorating global competitiveness, particularly in tourism and aviation. He called for a complete overhaul of airport management, including a modest increase in passenger service charges to fund the expansion of Airports of Thailand (AOT). The objective: turn Thailand into a true regional aviation hub with integrated cargo, passenger, and aircraft maintenance services.

To revive Thailand’s declining tourism appeal, he proposed a mix of practical and symbolic measures, including enhanced safety protocols via AI surveillance, high-profile cultural and sporting events such as Tomorrowland, Formula One races, and Bangkok Fashion Week, and a diversified entertainment offer that avoids the excesses of casino culture while embracing international standards.

Finally, to attract foreign capital and address the country’s demographic decline, Thaksin proposed a Golden Visa program offering long-term residence and property rights in exchange for investment. If well-structured, such a program could inject billions into the real estate and construction sectors while broadening the country’s tax base. More than a fiscal lever, the proposal reflects a deeper shift: the need to position Thailand as an open, forward-looking society capable of integrating global talent and capital.

Toward a New Model of Governance

This wide-ranging plan cannot be implemented without deep institutional reform. Thaksin emphasized the need for a new governance model, built on performance, accountability, and digital modernization. He called for the reinstatement of “CEO-style” governors, empowered to implement policy at the provincial level with clear targets and measurable outcomes. He also suggested entrusting universities with the task of auditing and proposing reforms to individual ministries, thus depoliticizing state modernization efforts. Borrowing from the Emirati model, he advocated replacing opaque bureaucratic procedures with transparent service fees to fund public services and civil servant welfare.

The overall vision is that of a country managed like a dynamic, lean enterprise—a far cry from the sluggish, patronage-ridden state that Thailand has become. “PM Paetongtarn is the Prime Minister. I am just an assistant—a clerk for the country,” he said. But this modest claim belies the depth of the strategic blueprint he laid out. Thaksin may not be seeking formal office, but he is clearly positioning himself as an indispensable source of guidance for a government in need of direction.