Climate Change Increasing Satellite Vulnerability to Solar Storms
Satellites that power GPS, communications, and other vital networks are expected to face greater risks in the coming decades, according to a new scientific study. Researchers warn that climate pollution is altering Earth’s atmosphere in ways that could amplify the impact of solar-driven geomagnetic storms, threatening the reliability and longevity of satellites orbiting the planet.
How Climate Pollution Alters the Upper Atmosphere
The buildup of heat-trapping carbon dioxide does not only affect weather at ground level—it also influences the highest layers of Earth’s atmosphere. In these upper regions, greater concentrations of carbon dioxide make the air thinner and less dense. Under normal conditions, this reduced density would actually help satellites by lowering atmospheric drag, potentially lengthening their operational lifespans.
However, geomagnetic storms—triggered when charged particles from the Sun collide with Earth’s atmosphere—have the opposite effect. They cause sudden spikes in atmospheric density, which increase drag on satellites and interfere with their orbits. The study, published in Geophysical Research Letters, warns that future storms of the same intensity as today’s will create much larger swings in density, because they will be acting on a thinner baseline atmosphere.
Lead author Nicholas Pedatella of the National Center for Atmospheric Research explained that these rapid density changes could cause serious challenges for spacecraft operations. Satellites are engineered to function within specific atmospheric conditions, but climate change is shifting those parameters in unpredictable ways.
Rising Risks for Satellite Networks
Geomagnetic storms are best known for creating dazzling auroras across the night sky, but they also have a destructive side. Strong storms can alter atmospheric density enough to pull satellites into lower orbits, reducing their lifespan or even rendering them inoperable.
Using supercomputer simulations, researchers modeled how the Earth’s atmosphere might respond to strong solar storms in the years 2040, 2061, and 2084. Their analysis suggests that at the height of a storm, atmospheric density could be 20% to 50% lower compared with today. As a result, the increase in density caused by the storm would be far more dramatic—shifting from a doubling, as observed in recent events, to a potential tripling later this century.
Such swings create a higher probability of satellites dropping closer to Earth, disrupting their function. The study emphasizes that satellites designed with past atmospheric patterns in mind may not be resilient enough for future conditions shaped by climate change.
Implications for Space Operations and Society
The risks extend beyond navigation and communications. Satellites are crucial for weather forecasting, internet connectivity, scientific research, and even military security. A failure in these networks could have widespread impacts on society at the ground level.
Pedatella noted that while a less dense atmosphere might extend the lifetime of satellites in general, it could also worsen the growing problem of space debris. With less drag to naturally pull old satellites and debris back toward Earth, more space junk will remain in orbit, increasing the risk of collisions.
The study used a recent major solar storm as a case study. In May 2024, a series of coronal mass ejections from the Sun struck Earth’s atmosphere, disrupting satellites and pushing auroras unusually far south. By simulating how the same event would unfold in future decades, scientists demonstrated the heightened risks posed by climate-driven atmospheric changes.
Looking Ahead
Experts stress that the satellite industry must adapt its designs to anticipate these shifts. Relying on historical atmospheric data could leave critical infrastructure vulnerable as conditions evolve. “The same magnitude of storm in 30 years could trigger a very different atmospheric response than it would today,” Pedatella cautioned.
As society grows more dependent on satellite technology, the intersection of climate change and solar activity poses a new frontier of risk. Preparing for this challenge will be essential to protect the networks that underpin modern life.
