Children Born Today May Face a Future of Drastically Reduced Crop Yields
Rising global temperatures are expected to severely impact food production worldwide, with particularly alarming consequences for the United States, where yields of key crops could fall by up to 50% by the end of the century, according to a comprehensive new study.
Climate Change Threatens Global Agriculture
The effects of climate change on agriculture have long been a topic of debate, particularly regarding the extent to which farmers’ adaptations—such as switching crop varieties or adjusting irrigation—can offset rising temperatures. This latest analysis, eight years in the making, represents one of the first major efforts to combine climate modeling with real-world farming practices, offering a more precise estimate of future food production.
The researchers examined six essential crops—maize, soybeans, rice, wheat, cassava, and sorghum—across more than 12,000 regions in 54 countries. Collectively, these staples provide over two-thirds of the global calorie supply. The study also factored in farmers’ adaptive measures, calculating how global warming could affect yields despite these interventions.
Staple Crops at High Risk
The results are stark. For every 1°C increase in global temperatures above pre-industrial levels, food production could drop by an average of 120 calories per person per day. Such reductions would drive up food prices and limit access, exacerbating food insecurity globally. Current projections suggest that temperatures could rise by approximately 3°C by 2100—a change that could drastically reduce global food availability.
High-value crops like maize, soybeans, and wheat are expected to be hit hardest. In the United States, maize production in the Corn Belt could fall by 40%, soybeans by 50%, and wheat by 40% in key farming regions. Similar declines are projected for major agricultural zones in China, Russia, and Canada. Rice appears to be the only staple that may avoid significant losses, benefiting in part from warmer nighttime temperatures.
Some wealthier countries may suffer the greatest impacts. Regions with highly optimized agricultural systems, such as the US and parts of Europe, are less resilient to extreme heat compared with poorer areas where crops and farming practices are already adapted to harsh conditions.
Urgent Need for Action
The effects will also be felt in lower-income countries. In sub-Saharan Africa, yields of cassava—a drought-tolerant staple—are predicted to decline under extreme heat, threatening nutrition for millions. Despite its robustness, cassava is vulnerable to intense temperature spikes, highlighting that even resilient crops are not immune to climate change.
Experts stress that adaptation has limits. While strategies like altering planting schedules or switching crops may mitigate some losses, these measures alone will not secure global food supplies under high-warming scenarios.
The research underscores the urgency of reducing greenhouse gas emissions and transforming the global energy system. Without decisive action, crop losses will increase, food prices will rise, and millions could face heightened food insecurity.
“This is an unprecedented challenge,” said study co-author Solomon Hsiang. “The scale and cost of this problem are enormous. Humanity has never confronted anything quite like it.”
As global temperatures continue to climb, children born today may inherit a world in which staple crops produce only half as much as they do now—a sobering reminder of the tangible consequences of climate inaction.
