Global Emissions Gap Raises Concerns Ahead of COP31
The global emissions gap remains a major obstacle in the effort to control climate change, according to a new assessment from the United Nations Environment Programme. Countries have made progress in expanding renewable energy and introducing climate policies, but their combined commitments are not strong enough to keep global warming within the 1.5°C target without a period of overshoot.
The findings arrive just weeks before COP31, the next major United Nations climate conference, where governments are expected to discuss how to accelerate action and turn existing promises into measurable results.
Why the 1.5°C Target Is at Risk
The Paris Agreement established an international goal of limiting global warming to well below 2°C while pursuing efforts to keep the increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.
The latest assessment indicates that exceeding 1.5°C is now expected in the coming years. The report therefore examines ways to make that overshoot smaller and shorter, with the possibility of returning temperatures to 1.5°C or below by the end of the century.
In its lowest-overshoot scenario, global temperatures peak between 1.7°C and 1.8°C around mid-century. Reaching that outcome would require significant emissions reductions and increasing the removal of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere over time.
Existing Climate Pledges Are Not Enough
The report identifies a substantial difference between the reductions needed and what governments currently plan to deliver.
To follow the lowest-overshoot pathway, global greenhouse gas emissions must decline by 18% by 2030, 45% by 2035 and 69% by 2040, relative to 2025 levels.
Yet full implementation of current national climate commitments would produce reductions of only 5% to 8% by 2030 and 11% to 15% by 2035. Under these pledges, global warming could still reach approximately 2.6°C during this century. Continued current policies could result in warming of about 2.8°C.
These projections highlight the need for governments to revise their strategies and make existing commitments more ambitious.
Clean Energy Growth Provides Some Hope
The outlook is concerning, but the report also identifies reasons to continue investing in climate solutions. Renewable electricity has expanded significantly since the Paris Agreement, particularly through the rapid growth of solar power.
Policies that support cleaner electricity, energy efficiency and lower industrial emissions have also delivered measurable results in different countries and sectors.
The challenge is to expand these successes. Governments need to increase renewable energy capacity, reduce fossil fuel use, control methane emissions and protect forests. Progress in one sector cannot compensate indefinitely for continued high emissions elsewhere.
What Governments Need to Address at COP31
The COP31 summit in Türkiye will take place against this difficult background. Governments will face pressure to translate climate goals into specific measures that can be implemented and monitored.
The UN assessment calls for clearer emissions targets for 2035 and 2040, alongside faster action on renewable energy and the transition away from fossil fuels.
Carbon removal is another part of the proposed pathway. However, removing enough carbon dioxide to bring temperatures back down would require major expansion of technologies and methods whose ability to operate at the necessary scale remains uncertain.
The Cost of Delaying Climate Action
The global emissions gap is more than a technical measurement. It reflects the difference between the future countries want to achieve and the results their current policies are likely to produce.
Every additional fraction of a degree can increase climate-related risks, including extreme heat, flooding and damage to natural systems. Faster emissions cuts would help reduce these dangers, even if the world temporarily exceeds its preferred temperature threshold.
As COP31 approaches, the report’s message is clear. Existing progress offers a foundation for action, but governments must move faster and deliver deeper reductions to limit the long-term consequences of global warming.
