The vast majority of experts agree that the UK is set to lose out financially from Brexit, particularly in the event of a no-deal scenario. The government is now making contingency plans in the event that the UK leaves without a deal in place.
But with the EU and UK being interdependent, what will the effects be on the rest of Europe?
The UK is linked with the rest of the EU27, not just through trade, but in everything from investments, tourism, and the free movement of workers, citizens, and students.
A multitude of industries are predicted to face difficulties after Brexit, and according to a recent study, some countries are due to be affected more than others.
The EU is preparing for a no-deal Brexit. And some parts of the EU are preparing for trade disruptions including higher tariffs and problems with supply chains. Ireland is predicted to be the most affected by this.
At the moment 14% of Irish exports go to the UK. Although Ireland isn’t as reliant on the UK as it has been at other times in history, some sectors are still heavily reliant on trade with the UK – like the agriculture, electronics, pharmaceutical, machinery, and electronics industries.
Furthermore, there’s the ongoing issue of the Irish border. This has been a key concern during the Brexit negotiations and has caused delays in a deal being passed.
Peace in Northern Ireland is dependant on good relations with the Republic of Ireland, and the Irish backstop has been highlighted by MP’s as one of the biggest setbacks in previous proposals.
Other member states that are expected to face problems post-Brexit include France, Belgium, Germany, and the Netherlands. France, Belgium, and the Netherlands are home to key gateways between the UK and the rest of Europe.
Delays that could be imposed when importing and exporting products could have an effect on these economies.
And Germany could also see disruptions in trade relations. Most importantly, in the automotive industry; but also within the pharmaceutical, electrical, and financial services industries.
Additionally, with London and Frankfurt being major financial hubs, there could be an impact on relations between the two cities. Although, it’s noted in the report that Frankfurt could benefit as financial services firms could be looking to relocate in the future.
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